IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+8.8	#64
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.9	#297
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+5.9	#39

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.9	#92

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
#1 Seed	1.0%	1.5%	0.3%
Top 2 Seed	2.5%	3.6%	0.8%
Top 4 Seed	6.2%	9.0%	2.3%
Top 6 Seed	10.3%	14.7%	4.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid	45.6%	53.5%	34.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	21.3%	28.4%	13.0%
Average Seed	9.1	8.6	10.3

.500 or above	88.0%	93.9%	80.1%
.500 or above in Conference	91.6%	94.5%	87.6%
Conference Champion	41.1%	47.7%	32.1%
Last Place in Conference	0.7%	0.4%	1.3%

First Four	3.7%	4.0%	3.4%
First Round	43.7%	51.5%	33.0%
Second Round	21.2%	26.9%	13.5%
Sweet Sixteen	8.5%	11.2%	4.8%
Elite Eight	3.6%	5.0%	1.7%
Final Four	1.4%	2.0%	0.6%
Championship Game	0.7%	0.9%	0.3%
National Champion	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Neutral) - 57.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	1 - 1	1 - 3
Quad 2	3 - 3	4 - 5
Quad 3	8 - 2	11 - 8
Quad 4	6 - 0	17 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	82	Western Kentucky	W	74-72	58%
Dec 09, 2020	53	@ Richmond	L	70-74	36%
Dec 12, 2020	240	Green Bay	W	88-71	93%
Dec 16, 2020	8	@ Wisconsin	L	60-70	19%
Dec 19, 2020	110	@ Marshall	W	79-77	56%
Mar 08, 2021	76	Loyola Chicago	W	69-65	65%
Mar 08, 2021	117	Bradley	W	74-66	76%
Mar 08, 2021	122	Indiana St.	W	74-65	77%
Mar 08, 2021	135	Missouri St.	W	76-66	80%
Mar 08, 2021	144	Drake	W	76-65	82%
Mar 08, 2021	155	Valparaiso	W	77-66	83%
Mar 08, 2021	168	Southern Illinois	W	70-58	86%
Mar 08, 2021	188	Illinois St.	W	77-63	88%
Mar 08, 2021	261	Evansville	W	78-60	93%
Mar 09, 2021	76	@ Loyola Chicago	L	66-68	45%
Mar 09, 2021	117	@ Bradley	W	71-69	58%
Mar 09, 2021	122	@ Indiana St.	W	71-68	58%
Mar 09, 2021	135	@ Missouri St.	W	73-69	63%
Mar 09, 2021	144	@ Drake	W	73-68	64%
Mar 09, 2021	155	@ Valparaiso	W	74-69	67%
Mar 09, 2021	168	@ Southern Illinois	W	67-61	69%
Mar 09, 2021	188	@ Illinois St.	W	74-66	72%
Mar 09, 2021	261	@ Evansville	W	75-63	83%
Projected Record						16 - 7	13 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.1	0.4	2.3	6.1	9.7	10.5	8.0	4.0		41.1	1st
2nd											0.1	1.0	3.7	6.9	6.3	3.3	0.9				22.0	2nd
3rd										0.1	1.1	4.0	5.1	2.8	0.6	0.0					13.8	3rd
4th								0.0	0.1	1.0	2.9	2.8	1.3	0.1	0.0						8.2	4th
5th							0.0	0.1	0.9	2.1	2.0	0.6	0.0								5.7	5th
6th							0.1	0.6	1.5	1.2	0.3	0.0									3.7	6th
7th					0.0	0.1	0.5	1.1	0.7	0.2	0.0										2.6	7th
8th				0.0	0.0	0.4	0.7	0.4	0.1												1.6	8th
9th		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0													0.8	9th
10th		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1															0.4	10th

Total		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.8	1.4	2.2	3.3	4.6	6.4	8.5	10.5	12.2	13.0	13.0	11.4	8.0	4.0			Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	4.0		4.0
17-1	100.0%	8.0		7.8	0.2
16-2	92.4%	10.5		9.1	1.4	0.0
15-3	74.7%	9.7		6.7	2.8	0.2
14-4	46.7%	6.1		2.9	2.6	0.5	0.0
13-5	19.3%	2.3		0.7	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.0
12-6	4.0%	0.4		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.6%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	41.1%	41.1		31.3	8.2	1.4	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	4.0%		99.3%	73.9%	25.5%	3.4		0.8	0.9	0.5	0.7	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		97.5%
17-1	8.0%		95.5%	63.9%	31.5%	5.9		0.2	0.5	0.7	1.3	1.0	0.9	1.0	0.6	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0				0.4		87.4%
16-2	11.4%		87.4%	52.5%	34.9%	8.7		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.7	1.0	1.3	1.6	1.7	1.5	0.8	0.2				1.4		73.5%
15-3	13.0%		71.5%	43.0%	28.5%	10.3					0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.3	2.2	2.4	1.9	0.4	0.0			3.7		50.1%
14-4	13.0%		49.7%	32.1%	17.6%	11.2						0.0		0.0	0.2	0.4	1.1	1.8	2.2	0.7	0.1	0.0		6.5		25.9%
13-5	12.2%		32.9%	24.5%	8.5%	12.0									0.0	0.0	0.3	0.7	1.8	1.0	0.2	0.0		8.2		11.2%
12-6	10.5%		19.7%	18.2%	1.5%	12.4										0.0	0.0	0.2	0.9	0.6	0.2	0.1		8.4		1.8%
11-7	8.5%		13.6%	13.2%	0.4%	12.9											0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1		7.4		0.5%
10-8	6.4%		8.1%	8.1%		13.8												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	5.9
9-9	4.6%		7.4%	7.4%		14.3													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	4.2
8-10	3.3%		4.3%	4.3%		14.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	3.2
7-11	2.2%		2.0%	2.0%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.0	2.2
6-12	1.4%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																	0.0	1.3
5-13	0.8%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	0.8
4-14	0.3%																							0.3
3-15	0.3%																							0.3
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18

Total	100%		45.6%	30.9%	14.7%	9.1		1.0	1.5	1.4	2.4	2.1	2.0	2.4	2.9	3.9	5.8	6.9	8.1	3.6	1.0	0.5	0.2	54.4		21.3%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.4%	100.0%	1.9	48.0	32.0	10.8	4.9	4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	2.6	18.2	34.1	23.9	14.8	9.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	3.6	2.8	27.8	25.0	22.2		22.2